Finally, it had nothing to do with statistics, probability and the other tools of modern risk analysis. These didn’t exist. Its raw material was experience, and its analytical mechanisms were intuitive. Risks were not calculated. They were felt.

“Paul when he’s leaving Ephesus says give grace to people who need it, and give to those in need,” Pastor Zimmer said. “The people who are here don’t have options,” he said of the 250 people who have sought shelter at the church. Some sleep in the gymnasium, others in tents pitched in the yard behind the church.

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A generation ago, officials meeting in board rooms agreed to implement sensible policies, and the acid rain and ozone-depletion crises were solved. Climate change won’t be stopped the same way. It can’t be. No matter what good work is done at meetings such as the recent United Nations conference in Poland, pushing the needle away from the most dangerous climate-change scenarios requires economic and social changes so fundamental that they cannot happen in a democracy without broad popular support for collective action. The only precedent for such mobilization is wartime.

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